财务报表分析与证券估值全套配套课件英文PPT中文PPT案例教学建议Chap004.ppt 32页

CHAPTERFOURMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Chapter4Preparedby:StephenH.Penman–ColumbiaUniversityWithcontributionsbyNirYehuda–NorthwesternUniversityMingcherngDeng–UniversityofMinnesotaPeterD.EastonandGregoryA.Sommers–NotreDameandSouthernMethodistUniversitiesLuisPalencia–UniversityofNavarra,IESEBusinessSchoolCashAccounting,AccrualAccounting,andDiscountedCashFlowValuation4-2 WhatYouWillLearnFromThisChapterHowthedividenddiscountmodelworks(ordoesnotwork)HowaconstantgrowthmodelworksWhatismeantbycashflowfromoperationsWhatismeantbycashusedininvestingactivitiesWhatismeantbyfreecashflowHowdiscountedcashflowvaluationworksProblemsthatariseinapplyingcashflowvaluationWhyfreecashflowmaynotmeasurevalueaddedinoperationsWhyfreecashflowisaliquidationconceptHowdiscountedcashflowvaluationinvolvescashaccountingforoperatingactivitiesWhy“cashflowfromoperations”reportedinU.S.andIFRSfinancialstatementsdoesnotmeasureoperatingcashflowscorrectlyWhy“cashflowsininvestingactivities”reportedinU.S.andIFRSfinancialstatementsdoesnotmeasurecashinvestmentinoperationscorrectlyHowaccrualaccountingforoperationsdiffersfromcashaccountingforoperationsThedifferencebetweenearningsandcashflowfromoperationsThedifferencebetweenearningsandfreecashflowHowaccrualsandtheaccountingforinvestmentaffectthebalancesheetaswellastheincomestatementWhyanalystsforecastearningsratherthancashflows4-3 TheBigPictureinThisChapterAvaluationmodelisamethodofaccountingforvalueDiscountedcashflow(DCF)valuationemployscashaccountingforvaluationDCFValuation–andcashaccountingforvalue–doesnotworkMovetoaccrualaccountingforvalueinChapters5and64-4 AReminder:ValuationModelsforGoingConcernsCF1CF2CF3CF4CF5AFirm123450d1d2d3d4d5DividendFlow123450TVTTdTEquityTheterminalvalue,TVTisthepricepayoff,PTwhentheshareissoldValuationissues:Theforecasttarget:dividends,cashflow,earnings?Thetimehorizon:T=5,10,?Theterminalvalue?Thediscountrate?4-5 TheDividendDiscountModel:ForecastingDividends4-6 TerminalValuesfortheDDMA.CapitalizeexpectedterminaldividendsB.CapitalizeexpectedterminaldividendswithgrowthWillitwork?4-7 SomeFinancialMath:TheValueofaPerpetuityandaPerpetuitywithGrowthTheValueofaPerpetuityAperpetuityisaconstantstreamthatcontinueswithoutend.Theperiodicpayoffinthestreamissometimesreferredtoasanannuity,soaperpetuityisanannuitythatcontinuesforever.Tovaluethatstream,onecapitalizestheconstantamountexpected.Ifthedividendexpectednextyearisexpectedtobeaperpetuity,thevalueofthedividendstreamisValueofaperpetualdividendstream=TheValueofaPerpetuitywithGrowthIfanamountisforecastedtogrowataconstantrate,itsvaluecanbecalculatedbycapitalizingtheamountattherequiredreturnadjustedforthegrowthrate:Valueofadividendgrowingataconstantrate=4-8 DividendDiscountAnalysis:AdvantagesandDisadvantagesAdvantagesEasyconcept:dividendsarewhatshareholdersget,soforecastthemPredictability:dividendsareusuallyfairlystableintheshortrunsodividendsareeasytoforecast(intheshortrun)DisadvantagesRelevance:dividendspayoutisnotrelatedtovalue,atleastintheshortrun;dividendforecastsignorethecapitalgaincomponentofpayoffs.Forecasthorizons:typicallyrequiresforecastsforlongperiods;terminalvaluesforshorterperiodsarehardtocalculatewithanyreliabilityWhenItWorksBestWhenpayoutispermanentlytiedtothevaluegenerationinthefirm.Forexample,whenafirmhasafixedpayoutratio(dividends/earnings).Dividendsarecashflowspaidoutofthefirm(toshareholders)Canwefocusoncashflowswithinafirm?4-9 CashFlowsWithinaFirm:FreeCashFlowCashflowfromoperations(inflows)Cashinvestment(outflows)FreecashflowTime,tC1C2C3C4I1I2I3I4C1-I1C2-I2C3-I3C4-I4C5I5C5-I512435Freecashflowiscashflowfromoperationsthatresultsfrominvestmentsminuscashusedtomakeinvestments.4-10 TheDiscountedCashFlow(DCF)Model4-11 TheContinuingValuefortheDCFModelA.CapitalizeterminalfreecashflowB.CapitalizeterminalfreecashflowwithgrowthWillitwork?4-12 DCFValuation:TheCoca-ColaCompanyInmillionsofdollarsexceptshareandper-sharenumbers.Requiredreturnforthefirmis9%199920002001200220032004Cashfromoperations3,6574,0974,7365,4575,929Cashinvestments9471,1871,167906618Freecashflow2,7102,9103,5694,5515,311Discountrate(1.09)t1.091.18811.29501.41161.5386Presentvalueoffreecashflows2,4862,4492,7563,2243,452Totalpresentvalueto200414,367Continuingvalue(CV)*139,414PresentvalueofCV90,611Enterprisevalue104,978Bookvalueofnetdebt4,435Valueofequity100,543Sharesoutstanding2,472Valuepershare$40.67*CV=5,311x1.05=139,4141.09-1.05PresentvalueofCV=139,414=90,6111.53864-13 StepsforaDCFValuationHerearethestepstofollowforaDCFvaluation:ForecastfreecashflowtoahorizonDiscountthefreecashflowtopresentvalueCalculateacontinuingvalueatthehorizonwithanestimatedgrowthrateDiscountthecontinuingvaluetothepresentAdd2and4Subtractnetdebt4-14 WillDCFValuationAlwaysWork?AFirmwithNegativeFreeCashFlows:GeneralElectricCompanyInmillionsofdollars,exceptper-shareamounts.20002001200220032004Cashfromoperations30,00939,39834,84836,10236,484Cashinvestments37,69940,30861,22721,84338,414Freecashflow(7,690)(910)(26,379)14,259(1,930)Earnings12,73513,68414,11815,00216,593Earningspershare(eps)1.291.381.421.501.60Dividendspershare(dps)0.570.660.730.770.824-15 WillDCFValuationWorkforStarbucks?4-16 WillDCFValuationWorkforWal-MartStores?Wal-MartStores,Inc.(FiscalyearsendingJanuary31.Amountsinmillionsofdollars.)198819891990199119921993199419951996Cashfromoperations5368289681,4221,5531,5402,5733,4102,993Cashinvestments6275418941,5262,1503,5064,4863,7923,332Freecashflow(91)28774(104)(597)(1,966)(1,913)(382)(339)Dividendspershare0.030.040.060.070.090.110.130.170.20Pricepershare6⅞8½10⅝16½2732½26½25⅞24⅜4-17 DCFValuationandSpeculationFormalvaluationaimstoreduceouruncertaintyaboutvalueandtodisciplinespeculationThemostuncertain(speculative)partofavaluationisthecontinuingvalue.SovaluationtechniquesarepreferrediftheyresultinasmalleramountofthevalueattributabletothecontinuingvalueDCFtechniquescanresultinmorethan100%ofthevaluationinthecontinuingvalue:SeeGeneralElectricandStarbucks4-18 WhyFreeCashFlowisNotaValue-AddedConceptCashflowfromoperations(valueadded)isreducedbyinvestments(whichalsoaddvalue):investmentsaretreatedasvaluelossesValuereceivedisnotmatchedagainstvaluesurrenderedtogeneratevalueAfirmreducesfreecashflowbyinvestingandincreasesfreecashflowbyreducinginvestments:Freecashflowispartiallyaliquidationconcept!!Note:analystsforecastearnings,notcashflows4-19 DiscountedCashFlowAnalysis:AdvantagesandDisadvantagesAdvantagesEasyconcept:cashflowsare“real”andeasytothinkabout;theyarenotaffectedbyaccountingrulesFamiliarity:isastraightapplicationoffamiliarnetpresentvaluetechniquesDisadvantagesSuspectconcept:freecashflowdoesnotmeasurevalueaddedintheshortrun;valuegainedisnotmatchedwithvaluegivenup.freecashflowfailstorecognizevaluegeneratedthatdoesnotinvolvecashflowsinvestmentistreatedasalossofvaluefreecashflowispartlyaliquidationconcept;firmsincreasefreecashflowbycuttingbackoninvestments.Forecasthorizons:typicallyrequiresforecastsforlongperiods;terminalvaluesforshorterperiodsarehardtocalculatewithanyreliabilityNotalignedwithwhatpeopleforecast:analystsforecastearnings,notfreecashflow;adjustingearningsforecaststofreecashforecastsrequiresfurtherforecastingofaccrualsWhenItWorksBestWhentheinvestmentpatternissuchastoproduceconstantfreecashfloworfreecashflowgrowingataconstantrate.4-20 Nike,Inc.:OperatingandInvestingCashFlows,20104-21 ReportedCashFlowfromOperationsisIncorrectReportedcashflowsfromoperationsinU.S.cashflowstatementsincludesinterest(afinancingcashflow):CashFlowfromOperations=ReportedCashFlowfromOperations+After-taxNetInterestPaymentsAfter-taxNetInterest=NetInterestx(1-taxrate)Netinterest=Interestpayments–InterestreceiptsReportedcashflowfromoperationsissometimesreferredtoasleveredcashflowfromoperations4-22 ReportedCashFlowinInvestingActivitiesisIncorrectReportedcashinvestmentsincludenetinvestmentsininterestbearingfinancialassets(excesscash)(whichisafinancingflow):Cashinvestmentinoperations=Reportedcashflowfrominvesting-Netinvestmentininterest-bearingsecurities4-23 CalculatingFreeCashFlowfromtheCashFlowStatement:Nike,Inc.,20104-24 ConvertingEarningstoFreeCashFlow:Nike,Inc.,20104-25 ACommonApproximation4-26 FeaturesoftheIncomeStatementRevenueAccrualsValueaddedthatisnotcashflowAdjustmentstocashinflowsthatarenotvalueadded1.Dividendsdon’taffectincome2.Investmentdoesn’taffectincome3.ThereisamatchingofValueadded(revenues)Valuelost(expenses)Netvalueadded(netincome)4.AccrualsadjustcashflowsExpenseAccrualsValuedecreasesthatarenotcashflowAdjustmentstocashoutflowsthatarenotvalueadded4-27 TheIncomeStatement:Nike,Inc.4-28 TheRevenueCalculationRevenue=Cashreceiptsfromsales+NewsalesoncreditCashreceivedforpreviousperiods"salesEstimatedsalesreturnsandrebatesDeferredrevenueforcashreceivedinadvanceofsale+Revenuepreviouslydeferred4-29 TheExpenseCalculationExpense=Cashpaidforexpenses+AmountsincurredingeneratingrevenuebutnotyetpaidCashpaidforgeneratingrevenuesinfutureperiods+Amountspaidinthepastforgeneratingrevenuesinthecurrentperiod4-30 EarningsandCashFlowsEarningsfromthebusiness(operatingearnings)=Earnings+Netinterest(aftertax)=Freecashflow+investment+accruals=[C-I]+I+accruals=C+accrualsTheearningscalculationaddsbackinvestmentsandputsthembackinthebalancesheet.Italsoaddsaccruals.4-31 EarningsandCashFlows:Nike,Inc.,20104-32