惠悦国际-定制年金产品咨询报告（英文PPT38.pptx 39页

DesigningannuityproductsforconsumersneedsPresentedbyMikeWadsworthPartner,WatsonWyattmike.wadsworth@eu.watsonwyatt.com AgendaOptionsforgeneratinglifetimeincomeConsumerneedsInvestingforlifeManagingsurvivalAnewmodel "Idon"twanttoachieveimmortalitythroughmywork-Iwanttoachieveitbynotdying"WoodyAllen "Peoplewillsoonlivetwiceaslongastoday,andhavethepotentialtolivefor1200years"JohnHarris,ScientistMemberofUKHumanGeneticsCommissionasreportedSundayTimes,25June2000 Funeralfirmhitby29%profitfallNotenoughpeoplearedyingintheUS,accordingtoServiceCorporationInternational,theworld"slargestfuneralservicescompanyTimes,2October1999 ScaleofopportunitiesPeopleover65Source:USBureauoftheCensus AnnuityversusbondyieldIncometakenmonthlyinadvance;interestrate5%paAnnuityincomebrokendownintocapitalelementandthebalance(ieinterestelement) Optionsforretirementincome100%PensionerInvestmentGuaranteesPensionerSurvivalGuaranteesTraditionalAnnuityLumpSum?©WatsonWyattPartners20000%0% TraditionalannuitiesSomeimportantquestionsHowmuchdotheguaranteescost?Howvaluablearetheytocustomers?earlyinretirement/laterinretirement?accordingtootherassets?Howwilllifestylesandneedschangeinretirement?Willcustomerschangetheirmindsovertime? KeyissuesfordesignThePensionerChoice(investment)Flexibility(income)Protection(survival)Communication(tradeoffs)Failsafe AlifetimeassetallocationmodelTraditionalEitherlumpsumOrannuityRetireRetireOptimumreturn(equities?)Optimumreturn(equities?)CashBondsBonds©WatsonWyattPartners2000 AlifetimeassetallocationmodelProposedOptimumreturn(equities?)Optimumreturn(equities?)BondsRetire©WatsonWyattPartners2000 Effectofinvestmentgrowthonsupportableincome-malesBaseincomesupportablecalculatedat5%.Incomemultiple=incomesupportableassumingextrainvestmentreturnresultingfromequityinvestmentof1,2,3,4or5%paaftercharges,dividedbybaseincome.Mortalityaspreviously©WatsonWyattPartners2000 PlanningretirementincomeTheconsumerproblemis.....HowlongwillIlive?Lifespanisadistributionnotanexpectation DistributionofdeathsRetirementatage60Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001©WatsonWyattPartners2000 DistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge75now©WatsonWyattPartners2000Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001 DistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge90now©WatsonWyattPartners2000Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001 Standarddeviationofdeaths,asaproportionoflifeexpectancyMortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001©WatsonWyattPartners2000 MethodofcalculationNon-annuitisedfundIncomeeachyeardefinedas:Fundvalue/annuityfactorAnnuityfactorcalculatedatassumedinvestmentreturnof0%or7%pa(excludingexpenses)Investmentreturnachievedequalto7%pa(excludingexpenses)Investmentreturnassumed:(exclexpenses)Investmentreturnachieved:7%pa(exclexpenses)Mortality:PMA92Yearofuse2001Initialfund£100,000Maleaged60atoutset©WatsonWyattPartners2000Progressionofincome:spreadingfundoverfuturelifeexpectation Progressionofincome-annuitisedfundversusnon-annuitisedfundMortality:PMA92Yearofuse2001Maleaged60atoutset©WatsonWyattPartners2000 SupplierviewofmortalityguaranteesMortalityimprovingHowfast1%pa?2%pa?3%pa?Infuture?Scopetoreview?Guaranteesare(too)expensive? Mortalitydrift-uncertainfutureimprovementsBothchartsshowexpecteddistributionofdeathsformaleaged60in1992,allowingforfutureimprovements.PMA92representsthemorerecentestimateCross-subsidyoperatesacrosseitherdistribution,andlongevityprotectionislargelyretainedevenifmortalityisreviewedDriftinanticipateddistributionallowingfornewerevidence©WatsonWyattPartners2000 Excesssurvivors-PMA92comparedwithPMA80Costtoannuityproviderofnotreviewingmortalityrelatestopaymentsmadetothosesurvivorswhowerenotexpectedtolivesolong-theredzone©WatsonWyattPartners2000 NewmodelInvestmentfund+Insuranceagainstsurvival Lifetimeincomemodel-benefitstatementUnitsUnitPriceValue££StartofYear10,00010.00100,000AnnuityPayments(975)(10,000)SurvivalBonus2953,000EffectofChangesinUnitPrice4,860EndofYear9,32010.5097,860TargetIncomeforNextYear10,000©WatsonWyattPartners2000 Equivalentadditionalfundgrowthresultingfrommortalitycross-subsidyMortality:PMA92/PFA92CalendarYear2001©WatsonWyattPartners2000 EquivalentadditionalfundgrowthMF%pa%pa754.12.88513.18.49533.221.2NB:Partialsurvivalprotectionpossible FlexibleannuityreviewcycleInitialmax/minincomecalc"dAnnuitantselectsincomebetweenmaxandmintonextreviewPaymentsdeductedaccordingtoannuitantrequirements/survivalcredits/investmentreturnsaddedFundbalancedeterminedatreviewMax/minincometonextreviewcalc"d©WatsonWyattPartners2000 FlexibleincomeThecorridorIncomelevelchosenbytheannuitantannualmaximumannualminimum©WatsonWyattPartners2001 CommunicationofbenefitsIncomeprojections-incometakeninitially=incomesupportableat7%pa©WatsonWyattPartners2000 Incomeprojections-incometakeninitially=1.1xincomesupportableat7%pa©WatsonWyattPartners2000 Incomeprojections-incometakeninitially=0.9xincomesupportableat7%pa©WatsonWyattPartners2000 Incomeprojections-variableinvestmentmodel©WatsonWyattPartners2000 FailsafeDefaultinvestmentstrategies,egequitiesbondsoverlifetimeProgrammedswitchingtoguaranteeathighageProgrammedswitchingtoguaranteeonsustainedmarketfall,egJapanscenarioVoluntaryswitchingNB:Morefeaturesbettersystems Annuitydevelopments-unbundlingdynamicMoreimpairedlife/enhancedannuitiesOtherg"teedannuitiesmoreexpensive/lessprofitableMoreequitybasedannuitiesWeakerlongevityguarantees©WatsonWyattPartners2002 EffectofLTCrideronincomeBeforeLTCclaimAfterLTCclaimTheproductisavariableannuitypriortoclaim,thenafixedLTCannuityafterclaim,plusacontinuingvariableannuity(whichcouldconverttoaconventionalannuity).Thelevelofbenefitischosenbytheinsured.CLAIMIncomesupportablewithnoLTCrider(normalincome)LTCincome=50%ofincomepre-claimIncome=~96.5%ofnormalLTCincome=100%ofincomepre-claimIncome=~92.5%ofnormal AdvantagesoflifetimeincomemodelPensionersnaturalextensiontoDCpensionvehiclechooseandvaryassetallocationflexibilityofincomeoptimiseincomerelativetoriskInsurers/fundmanagerslongevityriskmanageablepotentialsegmentationofrisksnotrestrictedbyavailablebond(orother)investmentsglobalmultimarketapplicationAlsofinancialplanners/bondsuppliers DesigningannuityproductsforconsumerneedsPresentedbyMikeWadsworthPartner,WatsonWyattmike.wadsworth@eu.watsonwyatt.comMay2002 演讲完毕，谢谢观看！