财务报表分析与证券估值全套配套课件英文PPT中文PPT案例教学建议Chap015.ppt 25页

ChapterFifteenMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Chapter15Preparedby:StephenH.Penman–ColumbiaUniversityWithcontributionsbyNirYehuda–NorthwesternUniversityMingcherngDeng–UniversityofMinnesotaPeterD.EastonandGregoryA.Sommers–NotreDameandSouthernMethodistUniversitiesLuisPalencia–UniversityofNavarra,IESEBusinessSchool15-2AnchoringontheFinancialStatements:SimpleForecastingandSimpleValuation WhatYouWillLearnfromthisChapterHowsimpleforecastsyieldsimplebutinsightfulvaluationsHowforecastsaredevelopedfromthecurrentfinancialstatementsHowsalesforecastsarecombinewithfinancialstatementinformationtoprovidesimpleforecastsWhensimpleforecastsandsimplevaluationsworkasreasonableapproximationsHowsimpleforecastingworksasananalysistoolinsensitivityanalysisHowsimplevaluationmodelsworkinreverseengineeringmodetochallengethemarketpriceHowsimplevaluationmodelsenhancescreeninganalysis15-3 TheBigPictureforthisChapterThetenet:AnchorvaluationonwhatyouknowratherthanspeculationThefinancialstatements,appropriatelyformulatedandanalyzed,are“whatweknow”Therefore,anchoravaluationonwhatyouseeinthefinancialstatementsbeforeaddingspeculationThisChapter“SimpleValuation”NextChapter“Fullproformavaluations”+Value=15-4 ASimpleValuationModelWecangettheingredientsfromthefinancialstatements:Date0itemsareinthefinancialstatementsDate1itemscanbeforecastedfromthefinancialstatementsGrowth,g,canbeforecastedfromthefinancialstatements15-5 PPE,Inc.:TheFinancialStatementsRequiredreturnforoperations=10%Requiredreturnfordebt=4%15-6 TheNo-growthForecast15-7 TheNo-growthReOIValuation15-8 TheNo-growthAOIGValuationConstantReOIimpliesAOIG=0ZeroAOIGimpliesanormalenterpriseP/EratioForPPEInc.15-9 No-growthValuation:Nike,Inc.15-10 TheGrowthForecastReOI1=10.431–(0.10×74.4)=2.991=(0.1402–0.10)×74.4=2.991ForPPE,Inc.thecurrentcoreRNOA=9.8/69.9=14.02%15-11 TheForecastedGrowthRateIfRNOA1=RNOA0ForPPE:g=74.4/69.9=1.064415-12 TheGrowthValuation15-13 TheGrowthValuationRestatedForPPEInc.,g=1.0644(6.44%growth)TheNOAmultiplier(EnterpriseP/Bratio)ForPPEInc.,g=1.0644(6.44%growth)EnterpriseP/B=2.1315-14 TheAOIGGrowthValuationForwardEnterpriseP/EG2=Cum-dividendgrowthrate,twoyearsaheadForPPEInc.ForwardEnterpriseP/E=15.2015-15 GrowthValuation:Nike,Inc.15-16 SimpleForecastsandSimpleValuations15-17 Weighted-AverageForecastsofGrowthWeighted-averageforecastofgrowthinReOI:ForecastedgrowthrateforReOI=(0.70×CurrentgrowthrateforReOI)+(0.30×4%)where4%isthehistoricalGDPgrowthrate________________________________________________________________ForNikeInc.,ForecastedNOAgrowthrate=(0.70×4.6%)+(0.30×4.0%)=4.42%ThisimpliesavalueforNikeof$71.54pershare)__________________________________________________________________________________Recognizeanhistoricalfact:GrowthratestrendtowardstheaveragegrowthratefortheeconomyRNOAtendstodeclineovertimeInvestmenttendstoslowdownovertime15-18 SalesGrowthCanReplaceNOAGrowthIfATOisconstant,ForecastgrowthinNOAwithforecastedsalesgrowthrate15-19 ASimpleValuationBasedonCoreRNOAandSalesGrowth:CocaCola15-20 ASimpleValuationBasedonCoreRNOAandSalesGrowth:CocaColaAveragesalesgrowthrate,2002-2007=5.4%15-21 SimpleValuation:ReverseEngineeringtheEnterpriseP/BforNikeInc.Nikeshareprice=$74Sharesoutstanding=484millionMarketpriceofequity=$35,816Netfinancialassets=4,370Enterprisemarketvalue$31,446NOA2010=$5,514CoreRNOA2010=30.1%15-22 EnhancedStockScreeningRatherthanscreenonP/EorP/B,screenasfollows:Unlever:Useenterprisemultiples(andgetridofleverageeffectsontheratios)ReverseengineertotheexpectedreturnortheimpliedgrowthrateScreenonexpectedreturnsorimpliedgrowthrates15-23 SimpleForecastingasanAnalyticalDevice:SensitivityAnalysis“AsIf”QuestionsEffectofchangesinRNOAonforecastsandvaluesEffectofchangesinPMandATOEffectofchangesinsalesgrowthandinNOAEffectofleverageonforecastsofnetincome15-24 TheValuationGrid:Nike,Inc.WhatvaluesareimpliedbydifferentcombinationsofRNOAandgrowthinNOA?AValuationGridforNike,2010:15-25