财务报表分析与证券估值全套配套课件英文PPT中文PPT案例教学建议Chap005.ppt 35页

CHAPTERFIVEMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Chapter5Preparedby:StephenH.Penman–ColumbiaUniversityWithcontributionsbyNirYehuda–NorthwesternUniversityMingcherngDeng–UniversityofMinnesotaPeterD.EastonandGregoryA.Sommers–NotreDameandSouthernMethodistUniversitiesLuisPalencia–UniversityofNavarra,IESEBusinessSchool5-2 WhatYouWillLearnFromThisChapterWhat“residualearnings”isHowforecastingresidualearningsgivesthepremiumoverbookvalueandtheP/BratioWhatismeantbya“normalprice-to-bookratio”Howresidualearningsaredrivenbyreturnoncommonequity(ROCE)andgrowthinbookvalueThedifferencebetweenaCase1,2and3residualearningsvaluationHowtheresidualearningsmodelappliestovaluingbusinessstrategiesHowtheresidualearningsmodelcapturesvalueaddedinastrategyTheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofusingtheresidualearningsmodelandhowitcontraststodividenddiscountinganddiscountedcashflowanalysisHowresidualearningsvaluationprotectstheinvestorfrompayingtoomuchforearningsaddedbyinvestmentHowresidualearningsvaluationprotectstheinvestorfrompayingforearningsthatarecreatedbyaccountingmethods5-3 TheBigPicturefortheChapterValue=Anchor+ExtraValueTheAnchorisBookValue:Value=BookValue+ExtraValueThePrincipleforaddingextravaluetobookvalue:Addextravalueiftherateofreturnofbookvalueisexpectedtobegreaterthantherequiredreturn5-4 ValuingaOne-PeriodProject(1)Investment$400Requiredreturn10%Revenueforecast$440Expenseforecast$400Forecastedearnings$40ThisisaZero-REprojectThisisazeroNPVproject:DCFValuation:5-5 ValuingaOne-PeriodProject(2)Investment$400Requiredreturn10%Revenueforecast$448Expenseforecast400Earningsforecast$48Theprojectaddsvalue5-6 ValuingaSavingsAccountValue=BookValue+PresentValueofResidualEarnings=100+0=100ForecastYear________________________________________201220132014201520162017Earningswithdrawneachyear(fullpayout)Earnings55555Dividends55555Bookvalue100100100100100100Residualearnings00000______________________________________________________________________________________Nowithdrawals(zeropayout)Earnings55.255.515.796.08Dividends00000Bookvalue100105110.25115.76121.55127.63Residualearnings00000______________________________________________________________________________________5-7 TheNormalPrice-to-BookRatioNormalP/B=1.0(Price=BookValue)TheNormalP/BfirmearnsanexpectedrateofreturnonitsbookvalueequaltotherequiredreturnTheNormalP/Bfirmearnsexpectedresidualearningsofzero.5-8 LessonsfromtheSavingsAccountAnassetisworthapremiumordiscounttoitsbookvalueonlyifthebookvalueisexpectedtoearnnon-zeroresidualearnings.Residualearningstechniquesrecognizethatearningsgrowthdoesnotaddvalueifthatgrowthcomesfrominvestmentearningattherequiredreturn.Eventhoughanassetdoesnotpaydividends,itcanbevaluedfromitsbookvalueandearningsforecasts.Thevaluationofthesavingsaccountdoesnotdependondividendpayout.Thetwoscenarioshavedifferentexpecteddividends,butthesamevalue.Thevaluationofasavingsaccountisunrelatedtofreecashflows:Thetwoaccountshavethesamevalue,butdifferentfreecashflow.5-9 AnAnchoringPrincipleIfoneforecaststhatanassetwillearnareturnonitsbookvalueequaltotherequiredreturn,itmustbeworthitsbookvalue5-10 AModelforAnchoringValueonBookValue5-11 RelationBetweenP/BRatiosandSubsequentRE5-12 TheModelforFiniteForecastingHorizonsBookValueAnchorResidualEarningsForecastContinuingValue:ValuenotbookedattimeT5-13 IngredientsoftheModelForfinitehorizonforecastsweneedthreeingredients,besidesthecostofcapital:1.Thecurrentbookvalue2.Forecastsofresidualearningstohorizon3.ForecastedpremiumatthehorizonComponent3iscalledthecontinuingvalue(1)(2)(3)5-14 ReturnonCommonShareholders’Equity(ROCE)5-15 AlternativeMeasureofResidualEarningsResidualearningsistherateofreturnonequity,ROCE,expressedasadollarexcessreturnonquityratherthanaratio.Butitcanbeexpressedinratioform:5-16 DriversofResidualEarningsTwoDrivers:ROCEIfforecastedROCEequalstherequiredreturn,thenREwillbezero,andV=BIfforecastedROCEisgreaterthantherequiredreturn,thenV>BIfforecastedROCEislessthantherequiredreturn,thenV