财务报表分析与证券估值全套配套课件英文PPT中文PPT案例教学建议Chap012.ppt 34页

CHAPTERTWELVEMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Chapter12Preparedby:StephenH.Penman–ColumbiaUniversityWithcontributionsbyNirYehuda–NorthwesternUniversityMingcherngDeng–UniversityofMinnesotaPeterD.EastonandGregoryA.Sommers–NotreDameandSouthernMethodistUniversitiesLuisPalencia–UniversityofNavarra,IESEBusinessSchool12-2 WhatYouWillLearnfromthisChapterHowratiosaggregatetoexplainReturnonCommonEquity(ROCE)HoweconomicfactorsdetermineratiosHowfinancialleverageaffectsROCEHowoperatingliabilityleverageaffectsROCEThedifferencebetweenReturnonNetOperatingAssets(RNOA)andReturnonAssets(ROA)Howprofitmargins,assetturnoversandtheircompositeratiosdriveRNOAHowborrowingcostsareanalyzedHowprofitabilityanalysiscanbeusedtoaskpenetratingquestionsregardingthefirm’sactivities12-3 TheBigPictureforthisChapterValuationinvolvesforecastingresidualearningsandresidualearningsgrowthROCEGrowthinBookValueWhatdrivesROCE?ThisChapterWhatdrivesgrowth?NextChapterSo,whatdrivesresidualearnings?12-4 AnalysisisthePreambletoForecastingandValuationAnalysisestablisheswherethefirmisnowForecastingaskshowitwillbedifferentinthefutureROCEDriverGrowthDriver12-5 AnalyzingROCE:TheScheme12-6 FirstLevelBreakdownofROCE:TheAnalysisofLeverageTheEffectsofLeverage:A.FinancingLeverageB.OperatingLiabilityLeverage12-7 A.AnalysisofFinancingLeverage(FLEV)So,ROCEisaweightedreturntooperatingactivitiesandfinancingactivities:or,RNOA=OI(Aftertax)/NOA(ReturnonNetOperatingAssets)FLEV=NFO/CSE(FinancialLeverage)NBC=NFE(aftertax)/NFO(NetBorrowingCost)SPREAD=RNOA–NBC(OperatingSpread)Spread12-8 TheFinancialLeverageEquationROCE=RNOA+FLEV×[RNOA–NBC]TheequationsaysthatROCEisdrivenbythreefactors:Profitabilityofoperations:RNOAFinancialLeverage:FLEV=NFOCSEOperatingSpread:RNOA-NBC12-9 HowFinancialLeverageExplainstheDifferenceBetweenROCEandRNOA12-10 GeneralMillsInc.:ReformulatedBalanceSheet12-11 FinancialLeverage:GeneralMillsInc.,2010(Inmillionsofdollars,averageforyear)NOA11,632OI1,177NFO6,099NFE251CSE(beforeMI)5,533CI926FLEV=6,099/5,533=1.102ROCE=16.7%RNOA=10.1%NBC=4.1%ROCE=RNOA+[FLEV×(RNOA–NBC)]=10.1%+[1.102×(10.1%-4.1%)]=16.7%12-12 GeneralMills:WhatIf?WhatifRNOAfellto2.0%?ROCE=2.0%+[1.102×(2.0%-4.1%)]=-0.3%Leveragebecomesunfavorable!12-13 FinancialLeverageforaFirmwithNegativeLeverage:MicrosoftCorporation,2003(Inmillionsofdollars)NOA12,829OI6,277NFA36,906NFI1,548CSE49,735CI7,825FLEV=-0.742ROCE=15.73%RNOA=48.93%RNFA=4.19%12-14 Microsoft:WhatIf?WhatifMicrosoftpaidaspecialdividendof$33billion(asitdidin2004)?NOA12,829NFA3,906CSE16,735FLEV=-0.233ROCE=48.93%-[0.233×(48.93%-4.19%)]=38.49%Note:PayingdividendsincreasesleverageandincreasesROCE12-15 OperatingliabilitieslevertheReturnonNetOperatingAssetsWhatwouldbetheoperatingprofitabilitywithoutoperatingliabilities?whereImplicitInterestonOperatingLiabilities(asabenchmark)=Short-termBorrowingRate(aftertax)xOperatingLiabilitiesTheEffectofOLLEV:whereRNOA=ROOA+(OLLEVxOLSPREAD)B.TheAnalysisofOperatingLiabilityLeverage(OLLEV)12-16 OperatingLiabilityLeverage:GeneralMillsInc.OA17,126OI1,177OL5,494NOA11,632OLLEV=5,494/11,632=0.472Short-termborrowingrate=0.7%(aftertax)Implicitcostofoperatingliabilities=5,494×0.007=38=10.1%12-17 ACaseofExtremeOperatingLiabilityLeverage:DellInc.NetOperatingAssets(NOA)arenegative!Doesthisleverageaddvalue?Yes!Residualincomefromoperations=$2,656–(0.09x-2028)=$2,839million12-18 SummingFinancialLeverageandOperatingLiabilityLeverageEffectsonROCEROCE=ROOA+(RNOA–ROOA)+(ROCE–RNOA)ReturnWithnoleverageEffectofOperatingLiabilitiesEffectofFinancingLiabilitiesForGeneralMills,16.7%=7.1%+(10.1%-7.1%)+(16.7%-10.1%)=7.1%+3.0%+6.6%12-19 ReturnonNetOperatingAssetsandReturnonAssetsProblemswithROA:FinancialassetsindenominatorFinancialincomeinnumeratorOperatingliabilitiesnotindenominatorNetincomeisnotcomprehensiveincomeMedianROAis7.1%since1962forU.SfirmsMedianRNOAis10.5%12-20 RNOAandROAforSelectedFirms,200712-21 FLEVandDebt-to-EquityRatiosProblemswithDebt-to-Equityratio:Excludesfinancialassets(whicheffectivelydefeasedebt)IncludesoperatingliabilitiesMedianDebt-to-Equityis1.22MedianFLEVis0.4312-22 Second-LevelBreakdownofROCE:DriversofOperatingProfitability↑Operatingprofitmargin:Assetturnover:TheabilitytogeneratesalesforagivenassetbaseEffectoffinancialleverage12-23 ProfitMarginandAssetTurnoverCombinationsfor238Industries,1963-200012-24 TypicalLevelsforROCE,FLEV,OLLEV,RNOA,PMandATOSource:Standard&Poor’sCOMPUSTAT®12-25 Third-LevelBreakdownofROCE:ProfitMarginDriversPM=SalesPM+OtheroperatingincomePMbyproductorlineofbusinessGM=Sales–CostofSales12-26 Third-LevelBreakdownofROCE:AssetTurnoverDriversSometimesothermeasuresareused:DaysinAcc.Receivable=Acc.Receivable/Avg.Salesperday=365/AccountsreceivableturnoverInventoryTurnover=CostofSales/Avg.InventoriesAcc.PayableTurnover=Purchases/Avg.Acc.Payable12-27 Nike,Inc.:ReformulatedBalanceSheets12-28 Nike,Inc.:ReformulatedIncomeStatements12-29 SecondandThird-LevelBreakdown:NikeandGeneralMills12-30 What-IfQuestions:NikeandGeneralMills12-31 Third-LevelBreakdown:AnalysisofNetBorrowingCostForGeneralMills;2010:12-32 TrackingProfitabilityforNikeOverYears12-33 OnceMore:ASummary12-34