财务报表分析与证券估值全套配套课件英文PPT中文PPT案例教学建议Chap007.ppt 15页

CHAPTERSEVENMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Chapter7Preparedby:StephenH.Penman–ColumbiaUniversityWithcontributionsbyNirYehuda–NorthwesternUniversityMingcherngDeng–UniversityofMinnesotaPeterD.EastonandGregoryA.Sommers–NotreDameandSouthernMethodistUniversitiesLuisPalencia–UniversityofNavarra,IESEBusinessSchoolValuationandActiveInvesting7-2 WhatYouWillLearnFromThisChapterReverseengineerthemarketpricetoascertainthemarket’searningsforecastsPlotthefutureearningsgrowthpaththatisimplicitinthemarketpriceCalculatetheexpectedreturnfrombuyingatthecurrentmarketpriceEvaluatethecurrentlevelofastockmarketindexliketheS&P500ChallengethemarketpriceofastockTakethefirststepsinengaginginactivelistening7-3 TheBigPictureforthisChapterDon’ttakevaluationmodelsliterallyUsevaluationmodelstochallengethemarketpriceratherthanforcalculatingintrinsicvalueUsevaluationmodelstoconvertthemarketpricetoaforecast–thenchallengethatforecastInvestingisnotagameagainstnature,ratheragameagainstotherinvestorsTherefore,usevaluationmodelstoplaythegameagainstotherinvestors7-4 CommonMisconceptionsAboutValuationTheideaof“intrinsicvalue”isnotusefulDon’tpretendthatyoucancalculateapreciseintrinsicvalueWedonotknowtherequiredreturnBuildingarequiredreturnintoavaluationputsspeculationintothecalculationWedonotknowthelong-termgrowthrateBuildingagrowthrateintoavaluationisspeculativeActiveinvestingfinessestheseissues7-5 AReminder:PrinciplesofFundamentalInvestingDon’tmixwhatyouknowwithspeculationAnchoravaluationonwhatyouknowratherthanspeculationBewareofpayingtoomuchforgrowthValue=Anchoringvalue+Extravalue=Valuebasedonwhatweknow+Speculativevalue7-6 ChallengingtheMarketPrice:ReverseEngineeringtheGrowthRateTheSimpleExampleofChapter5Ifprice=$133.71,thenSolveforg:g=1.03,ora3%growthrate7-7 ChallengingtheMarketPrice:ReverseEngineeringtheExpectedReturnTheSimpleExampleofChapter5Ifprice=$133.71andoneforecastsagrowthrateof3%,thenSolveforER:ER=1.10(a10%expectedreturn)7-8 AFormulafortheExpectedReturnTheExpectedReturnisaweightedaverageoftheforwardROCEandgrowth,wheretheweightsaregivenbybook-to-price(B/P)Note!ERistheexpectedreturntobuyingatthecurrentmarketprice,nottherequiredreturn7-9 ReverseEngineeringtheS&P500,May2011Inputs:Indexlevel:1357Bookvalue:588P/B:2.3B/P:0.435ForwardEarnings(forthenextyear)$98.76Long-termtreasuryrate:3.3%Riskpremium:5.7%ForwardROCE=98.76/588=16.8%RequiredReturn=3.3%+5.7%=9%7-10 ReverseEngineeringtheS&P500,May2011(cont.)Theimpliedgrowthrate:g=1.03(a3%growthrate)IfoneexpectsthehistoricalGDPgrowthrateof4%,theS&P500ischeap.Theimpliedexpectedreturn:Ifonerequiresa9%returntoinvestintheS&P500,theindexischeap.7-11 ChallengingtheMarketPrice:GoogleInc,May2011Price:$535Bookvalue:$143.92Analysts’EPSforecastfor2011:$33.94Analysts’EPSforecastfor2012:$39.55Requiredreturn:10%Value=Valuebasedonwhatweknow+Speculativevalue(1)(2)(1)Valuebasedonwhatweknowistheno-growthvaluation=$143.92+$215.62=$359.54(2)Speculativevalueisthevaluefromspeculatingaboutgrowth=Marketprice–No-growthvalue=$535-$359.54=$175.467-12 TheBuildingBlocksoftheMarket:ValuationofGoogleMarketprice=$535inMay20117-13 TheImpliedGrowthRate:GoogleSolutionforg:1.047(a4.7%growthrate)7-14 ConvertingaResidualEarningsGrowthRatetoanEPSGrowthRatePlotofforecastedgrowthrates:7-15