德勤-信用风险管理（英文PPT 35页）.ppt 35页

CreditRiskManagementEnhancingYourBottomLineEbrahimShabudinManagingDirectorDeloitte&ToucheLLPTheAFP23rdAnnualConferenceNewOrleansNovember3-6,2002 CreditBackgroundThoroughidentificationandaccuratemeasurementofcreditrisk,supportedbystrongriskmanagementcanhelpimprovethebottomline…..Anuncertainandvolatileeconomicenvironmentsignificantlyimpactsthisability…..Thedesiretogrowandturninoutstandingresultshasatendencytoputpressureonthechecksandbalanceswithinbusinesses ValuePropositionCreditplaysacriticalrolein“selling”productsandservicesExpandsrevenueopportunitieswithcreditworthy,incrementalcustomersUtilizesinnovativestructurestosupportbusinessrelationshipsEffectivecreditriskmanagementlimitscreditlossesandprovidesstablecashflowsandearningsMarketplacerewardscompaniesexhibitingearningsandcashflowstabilitywithhigherP/EmultiplesMarketplacepenalizescreditinducedvolatilityand“surprises”Raisesquestionsaboutqualityofmanagement CorporateCreditRiskCompaniesareexposedtosignificantlevelsofcreditriskemanatingfromdifferentsourcesAccountsReceivablesOtherNotesReceivablesBuyerandFranchiseFinancingWithRecourseFinancingProjectFinanceStructuredTransactionsLeaseswithRecourseDerivativesExposuresFX,InterestRateRisk,Commoditiesetc.CollateralRiskParentorThirdPartyGuaranteesCommercialandStandbyLettersofCreditNotealsothatCriticalSupplierstothecompanymayposespecificcreditrisk DSOImpact…anexampleActualCompanyAPeerAverageQ3A/R$295,396,000Q3Sales$261,201,000DSOs=124*51.3HypotheticalDCashDSOs51.3Q3Sales$261,201,000Q3A/R=$122,002,230+$173,393,770*Equals295.4M/261.2Mx90(ornumberofdaysinsalesperiod) CreditasaFacilitatorCreditriskmanagementisimportantCreditisafacilitatorofbusinessgrowthandperformanceHighbusinessmarginstendtoattractlowerqualityclientsandthereforehigherriskprofiletomanageClients(buyers)maybeconcentratedinselectedindustriesandprovidelimitedportfoliodiversificationopportunityPoorcreditriskmanagementresultinginnegativeimpacttobottom-lineisheavilypenalizedbymarkets CreditStrategy&RiskToleranceSpecificQuantifiableObjectivesManagementReviewMethodologyCreditStrategyStatementandRiskToleranceCoordinationwithBusinessPlanThebusinessstrategiesandobjectivesdrivetheestablishmentofcreditpoliciesandprocedures.Measurementandreportingaswellastheuseofcurrenttechnologiesenhancecreditdecision-makingandimproveriskmanagement.Theentireprocessiscontinuallyre-evaluatedandimproved. CreditRiskAreastoConsiderCreditPolicyCreditApprovalAuthorityLimitSettingPricingTermsandConditionsDocumentation:ContractsandCovenantsCollateralandSecurityCollections,DelinquenciesandWorkoutsExposureManagementAggregationControlPeriodicAccountReviewsPayments/AgingCreditConditionCompliancewithCovenants,TermsTechnology/ReportsTransactions/BookingsRisk-adjustedReturnSalesChannelsRiskStrategyUnderwritingStandardsCreditApplicationAnalysisBusiness/IndustryFinancialCreditCreditScoringandRatingsOrigination/AssessmentAdministrationMonitoring/ControlRiskManagementPortfolioManagementConcentrationDiversificationAllowanceforBadDebtsRiskMitigationObjectivesTypeofExposureInstrumentsorMethods ValueCreationBusinessPerformanceMeasuresOrganizationsneedarigoroussetofmeasurestosupportcontinuousimprovementPerformance-basedmanagementutilizesmetricsthatmeasureactualperformanceagainstpredeterminedthresholds.Thethresholdsareestablishedtakingintoaccounttheorganization’sstrategy,operatingenvironmentandprocesscontrols.Themeasuresdrivevaluecreationandshouldsupportproblemidentificationandcorrection.BusinessStrategySystemsOperationsFinancePerformanceManagement SaleschannelsContracts&DocumentationCreditanalysisCreditlimitPricing&termsCreditAnalysisCreditDecisionsCollectionsCREDITPOLICYCollateralacceptancePortfoliomanagementFinancialanalysisDisposal/RiskmitigationCollateralmanagementCustomermanagementExposuremeasurementManagementreportingExposureaggregationRecoveriesCreditscoringRiskratingRISKMANAGEMENTCreditRiskManagement’sInter-relatedActivitiesComplianceOriginationReportingTransactions CreditPolicies&ProceduresAnalysis&RiskManagementGovernance,ControlandImplementationMeasurementMethodologiesTechnology&DataIntegrityCreditStrategy&RiskToleranceAcompleteandcoherentriskmanagementframeworkcontainsthefollowingelementsCreditRiskManagement ANewParadigmAnewbusinessparadigmhadevolved:causingalackofrelianceongoodfundamentalanalysisTheideathatstockmarketvalueswouldcontinuetogoupindefinitelyIncreasinglycompetitive,complexandvolatilemarketplaceHigherthanexpectedactualdebtburdensExtensiverelianceonunrealisticfuturecashflowsFailuresincorporategovernanceQuestionablepersonalandcorporateethics ImplicationsforCorporateGovernanceCurrentorganizationstructurestoberevisitedClarityaroundrolesandresponsibilitiesNeedforhonesty,integrityandindependence(self-regulation)TechnicalexpertiseofpeopleandstrongmanagementprocessesImproveddisclosurerequirementsImportanceandimplementationofsanctionsIncreasedlegislationandcompliancerequirements Foundation:CreditRatingandUnderwritingStandardsRiskIdentification,Origination,CreditAdministration,etc.ShortTerm:ManagingExpectedLossRiskIdentification,TransactionStructuring,Approval&PricingDecisions,Reserving,etc.NearTerm:ManagingEconomicCapital/CreditVaRPortfolioRiskConcentration,RiskBasedLimits,etc.Vision:ManagingRisk/ReturnPricingdecisions,Performancemeasurement,businessandcustomersegmentation,compensation,etc.AbusinessmodelviewofCreditRiskInfrastructurecomponentsCreditRiskManagement–StrategicVision DevelopmentStagesFoundationStageincludesapplicationofriskidentificationmethodologies,riskscoringorratingsystemsandstrongunderwritingstandardsBasicStagetendstoincludemanagingonatransactionalbasisbyevaluatingspecificattributessuchasstructuring,collateralandpricingAdvancedStagerepresentsmanagingonaportfoliobasisincludingaspectssuchasconcentrations,correlationsanddiversificationTheSophisticatedStageincludesapplicationofhighlydevelopedmeasurementtechniquesfortransactionsandportfolios,supportedbydecision-makingrelatingtosegmentsorbusinessesagainstestablishedhurdlerates. CreditRiskClarifiedCreditriskisdefinedastheriskoflossorpotentiallossresultingfrom:DefaultincontractualobligationsbyacustomerMigrationinconditionandratingDeteriorationinperformanceCreditriskincludesbothanexpected(predictable)andunexpected(volatile)losscomponent. BusinesseshavetocontendwithExpectedandUnexpectedLossesExpectedLossesAnticipatedCostofdoingbusinessChargedtoprovisionsCapturedinpricingRelativelyeasiertomeasureAssessingexpectedlossincludesdeterminingexposure,defaultprobabilityandseverityUnexpectedLossesUnanticipatedbutinevitableMustbeplannedforCoveredbyreservesAllocatedtobusinessesDifficulttomeasureAssessingunexpectedlossrequiresmakingqualitativejudgmentsaroundpotentialvolatilityofaveragelosses CreditRiskManagementExplainedAlthoughcreditriskmaybedifficulttomeasureitisimportanttoestimateandmanageWhatdoesCreditRiskManagementmean?Itrepresentsaninstitution’sabilitytoproperlyidentifyandevaluatethepotentialriskofdefaultinpaymentofobligationsofcustomersItincorporatesthefirm’sabilitytoeffectivelymanageandcontrolthisexposureinawaythatisconsistentwiththeinstitution’sbusinessstrategy,riskappetiteandcreditculture ImportantBuildingBlocksEffectiveCreditRiskManagementrequiresClearoriginationandunderwritingstandardsAstrongcorporateandcreditcultureHighlydevelopedriskmeasurementtechniquesAbilitytorecognizeandcoverexpectedandunexpectedlossesPricingcommensuratewithrisksundertakenMethodologiestoassessnetprofitcontributionsbycustomersandappropriatebusinesssegmentsProperallocationofcapitalandmanagementresourcesInorderto:Improveoverallcorporateperformance,measuredbyahigherEPSorP/Eratio(ormarketvalue) CreditPolicyandProcessCreditPolicyshouldbeclearandconciseCreditUnderwritingStandardsmustbedevelopedandincludedinpolicyCreditProcessesshouldbereasonableandallowquickresponsetoclientsHealthybalancebetweensalesandcreditapprovalshouldexistandberespected RiskMonitoringExposuremustbecompleteandcurrentRegularreportingandupdatingofclients’paymentperformanceMinimumannualreviewsofclientsshouldbeperformedFinancialconditionsshouldberegularlyassessedRequiredactionmustbeinitiatedandfollowupmusttakeplace ContractTermsandDocumentationContractnegotiationsmusttakeplaceattherightlevelintheorganizationAppropriateapprovalsmustbeobtainedInternalorexternallegaldepartmentsmustdocumentcompletelyTermsandconditionsshouldbeunderstoodandcompliancemechanismputinplaceExceptionsmustbereportedandmanagedurgentlytoresolution RiskRatingSystemEffectivenessCreditScoringisgenerallyusedto“riskrate”homogeneousportfoliosHighestapplicabilityisinconsumerandretailportfoliosSomeadvancedscoringsystemsarebeingmigratedforuseinrating“middlemarket”clientsSuchmodelsareonlyasgoodastheunderlyingassumptionsInternalcreditratingsystemsaredifficulttoassessandareoftennotindependentlyvalidatedClientrelationshipmayinterferewithobjectiveassessmentofrisksRatingcriteriausuallyamatterofpracticeratherthanwrittenpolicyRatingsarenotconsistentovertimeQualitativecreditassessmentsoftenlagcurrentmarketinformationInstitutionsoftenassumeamappingwithexternalratingsinordertoquantifycreditrisk EffectiveRiskRatingSystemsSufficientgranularityofriskratingcategoriesAccurateandtimelyassignmentofratingsClearandconsistentapplicationofdefaultdefinitionPeriodiccalibration,triangulationandvalidationofriskratingsAccurateidentificationofmigrationoftransactionsandportfolios(asreflectedbyupgradesanddowngradesinratings) CreditEvaluation:FinancialFactorsGettheinformationyouneedtomakeafullanalysisSomeinformationwillneedtobecross-checkedandobtainedonaregularandtimelybasisBeconstructivelycynical:newbusinessmodelsaredifficulttopulloffBecognizantofdelayingtacticsNumbersdon’ttellthewholestory! CreditEvaluation:QualitativeFactorsEvaluationofsubjectivefactorsisoftentimesmoreimportantthanthenumericalanalysisPeoplemakeabusiness:visions,valuesandstrategiesareonlywordsunlesspeopleimplementthemManagement,industry,product,geography,competitionetc.allinfluenceresultsandmustbeproperlyassessedAnalysis-paralysismayleadtowrongdecisions ArtandScienceofJudgmentGettingaccesstothebestclientsandalltherelevantinformationisachallengeEnsuringproperanalysisisdonerequiresastrongcorporatecultureUtilizingqualifiedresourcesbothinternallyandexternallyenhancestheresultsOftenthelackofthewilltoactiswhatcauseshighlosses ConcludingCommentsCompaniesthatmeasureandmanagecreditriskinapro-activemannerwillbenefitfromafavorableriskprofileresultinginHigherrevenueLowerlossesImprovedefficienciesHigherEPS,P/Eratiosandmarketvalues ConcludingCommentsRiskAssessmentandLimitManagementCreditInfrastructureandPortfolioManagementCreditAnalyticsSupportCreditTechnologyEnablementCreditQualityCreditUnderwritingRiskRatingSystemEffectivenessCounterpartyandPortfolioLimitsOrganizationalStructurePoliciesandProceduresTechnologySelectionandImplementationProblemAssetManagementRiskRatingCalibrationTransactionPricing,StructureandSupportDefaultProbabilityandRecoveryCalibrationCreditReserveMethodologyRiskBasedPricingModelsRiskAdjustedReturnAnalysisPortfolioValueMeasurementCreditRiskMeasurementCreditPerformanceScorecardsInternalSoftwareExternalVendorSoftware Appendix:BusinessProposalChecklistBusinessProposalSummaryCustomer,Rating,LegalStatus,LineofBusinessGuarantor,ifany…sameCollateral,ifany…truevalueexplainedOtherSupport,ifany...LegalormoralonlyTheTransaction…risksandmitigationAmount,purpose,termsandconditionsSourcesofrepayment…clearlyidentifiedClientpaymenthistoryandrelationship Appendix:BusinessProposalChecklistRationaleandAnalysisCustomer,Guarantor,Collateral,SupportFacilityDescriptionAmount,purpose,tenor,pricing,terms,conditions,covenants,restrictionsetc.Consideraffectonabovee.g.newleverageFacilityRating?RepaymentCapacityFuturecashflow,conversionofassetsetc.ConsistencywithCreditStrategyandPolicyConfirm,andidentifyanyexceptionstopolicy,underwritingstandards,orprocessRiskadjustedreturnacceptability Appendix:BusinessProposalChecklistClientRelationshipBusinessstrategy:increase,maintainordecreaseexposureorexitrelationshipConsiderrelationtorating,latestriskprofileandpaymentperformanceCustomerprofitability:riskadjustedreturn,revenue,fees,directandallocatedcostsetc.Anyconflictsofinterestorspecialconcerns Appendix:BusinessProposalChecklistMacroAnalysisBusinessEnvironmentReviewCustomer’scompetitivemarketpositionandfutureindustryprospects:size,cycle,volatility,newentrantsStrengthofcustomer’sbusinessandfinancialstrategiesManagementEvaluation:competency,experienceandeffectiveness Appendix:BusinessProposalChecklistCustomerAnalysisCompanyhistory,background,objectivesandperformanceRelevanceandstrengthoffuturebusinessplansConsiderseasonalityandscenarioanalysisPrimaryandsecondarysourcesofrepaymentHistoricalfinancialcapacityandanalysisoffutureperformance:sales,profitability,workingcapital,liquidity,cashflow,leverage,tangiblenetworthetc.QualityofearningsAbsoluteandratioanalysisPeercomparisons Appendix:BusinessProposalChecklistStrengths,WeaknessesandRecommendationKeyfactorsthatcouldjeopardizecollection:environmentorcompanyspecificAnymitigatingfactorsConsiderprobabilityandimpactConsiderallsourcesofrepayment:primary,secondaryandtertiary,includingaccesstocapitalmarkets,refinancingetc.Summarizestrengthsandweaknessesandconcludewitharecommendation