投资学,9e,精要版,48772,48760,英文PPT Chap011.ppt 38页

CHAPTER11EquityValuationModels 18-2Valuation:FundamentalAnalysisFundamentalanalysismodelsacompany’svaluebyassessingitscurrentandfutureprofitability.Thepurposeoffundamentalanalysisistoidentifymispricedstocksrelativetosomemeasureof“true”valuederivedfromfinancialdata. 18-3BalanceSheetModelsDividendDiscountModels(DDM)Price/EarningsRatiosFreeCashFlowModelsModelsofEquityValuation 18-4ValuationbyComparablesComparevaluationratiosoffirmtoindustryaverages.Ratioslikeprice/salesareusefulforvaluingstart-upsthathaveyettogeneratepositiveearnings. 18-5LimitationsofBookValueBookvaluesarebasedonhistoricalcost,notactualmarketvalues.Itispossible,butuncommon,formarketvaluetobelessthanbookvalue.“Floor”orminimumvalueistheliquidationvaluepershare.Tobin’sqistheratioofmarketpricetoreplacementcost. 18-6IntrinsicValuevs.MarketPriceThereturnonastockiscomposedofdividendsandcapitalgainsorlosses.TheexpectedHPRmaybemoreorlessthantherequiredrateofreturn,basedonthestock’srisk. 18-7RequiredReturnCAPMgivestherequiredreturn,k:Ifthestockispricedcorrectly,kshouldequalexpectedreturn.kisthemarketcapitalizationrate. 18-8Theintrinsicvalue(IV)isthe“true”value,accordingtoamodel.Themarketvalue(MV)istheconsensusvalueofallmarketparticipantsTradingSignal:IV>MVBuyIVk 18-26Table11.3EffectofROEandPlowbackonGrowthandtheP/ERatio 18-27P/EandGrowthRateWallStreetruleofthumb:ThegrowthrateisroughlyequaltotheP/Eratio.“IftheP/EratioofCocaColais15,you’dexpectthecompanytobegrowingatabout15%peryear,etc.ButiftheP/Eratioislessthanthegrowthrate,youmayhavefoundyourselfabargain.”QuotefromPeterLynchinOneUponWallStreet. 18-28P/ERatiosandStockRiskWhenriskishigher,kishigher;therefore,P/Eislower. 18-29PitfallsinP/EAnalysisUseofaccountingearningsEarningsManagementChoicesonGAAPInflationReportedearningsfluctuatearoundthebusinesscycle 18-30Figure11.3P/ERatiosoftheS&P500IndexandInflation 18-31Figure11.4EarningsGrowthforTwoCompanies 18-32Figure11.6P/ERatiosforDifferentIndustries,2007 18-33OtherComparativeValueApproachesPrice-to-bookratioPrice-to-cash-flowratioPrice-to-salesratio 18-34Figure11.7MarketValuationStatistics 18-35FreeCashFlowApproachValuethefirmbydiscountingfreecashflowatWACC.Freecashflowtothefirm,FCFF,equals:AftertaxEBITPlusdepreciationMinuscapitalexpendituresMinusincreaseinnetworkingcapital 18-36ComparingtheValuationModelsInpracticeValuesfromthesemodelsmaydifferAnalystsarealwaysforcedtomakesimplifyingassumptions 18-37TheAggregateStockMarketExplainingPastBehaviorForecastingtheStockMarket 18-38Table11.4S&P500PriceForecastsUnderVariousScenarios